Steel Market Overview for the Week (01.05-01.12)

This week, the domestic steel market continues to operate weakly. Internationally, the data released by the United States this week all show that there has been a clear and good momentum of development in the recent past, while Europe and Other countries are still gloomy, and the European debt crisis has barely improved the years before. On the domestic side, although policy support is unabated, However, the overall economic data is still not optimistic. The pressure on funds will be reflected before. Details are as follows:

International: According to data released by the United States on the 5th, the US’s initial jobless claims last week returned to the key node of 375,000, which is the fourth decline in the past five weeks, indicating that the job market is showing a recovery trend; the private sector last year12 In the month, 325,000 new jobs were created. In the United States, the unemployment rate fell to 8.5% in December last year. In December, factory orders increased by 1.8% from the previous month, consumer credit increased by 10% in November, and wholesale inventories rose by 0.1% in November. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in the EU reached 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year; the EU reached an agreement of "closure Iran" oil prices hit an eight-month high; Canada's unemployment rate rose to 7.5% last December; the euro zone economic confidence in various industries in December last year Declined; shopping season sales activity kept UK retail sales growth in December, but sales of various commodities were mixed; Fitch downgraded Hungary’s sovereign credit rating to junk status; Italy will achieve balanced budgets before 2013; Germany is already in the economy On the brink of recession, Portugal's economy has contracted by 3.1% this year; Brazil's CPI rose by 6.5% last year; South Korea's producer price index rose by 6.1% last year.

Domestic side: In December, some economic data were released today, and the CPI rose by 4% into a consensus; this year, credit increased by 8 trillion yuan into a consensus, supported by the continued construction of key projects; only 20% of small and micro enterprises receive bank loans, while large companies reach 100% %. In response to this, at the analysis conference on the development of China's private economy held yesterday, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce called for lowering the cost of loans, and for small and micro enterprises to get funds from formal channels as soon as possible, and survive; the four major banks newly added loans worth three billion yuan in three days. In the first quarter of 2011, efforts to increase or increase; from the 2011 perspective, exports and imports increased by 20.3% and 24.9%, respectively, from the previous year's 31.3% and 38.9% decline, the 2011 trade surplus hit a new low for six years; Agricultural products staged the Spring Festival market, the prices of various vegetables rose by over 50%; the Central No. 1 document was about to be announced, half of which focused on agricultural technology; the local two sessions were concentrated and all localities said that the situation this year was complex and difficult; the year was approaching, not only the private lending funds were tight, The financial side of the interbank market will also usher in a test. Since late December of last year, the one-month repurchase interest rate in the inter-bank market has continued to exceed 5.5%, showing that the demand for funds for the Spring Festival is very strong.

On January 12th, the Myspic Composite Index was 153.2 points, a week-on-week drop of 0.7%; the flat product index was 134.4 points, down 0.27% from the previous week's data; the long products index was 174.9 points, a week-on-month decrease of 1.06%.

Construction steel: This week, the domestic steel market continued to decline, and the market volume before the Spring Festival was low, basically to prepare for the market after the year. As of Thursday, the highest price of the national secondary rebar was 4760 yuan/ton in Kunming, and the lowest price in China was 4100 yuan/ton in Tianjin and Taiyuan. In terms of local conditions, prices in eastern China fell by 30-60 yuan/ton; in Central China, they fell by 30-80 yuan/ton; in southern China by 40 to 110 yuan/ton; in southwest China dropped by 50 yuan/ton; in North China, they fell by 20- 40 yuan / ton; Northeast prices fell 50 yuan / ton; northwest region fell 20-60 yuan / ton. Lunar New Year approaching, both the market futures and the spot market, the overall transaction volume is significantly reduced. In respect of the steel mills: The prices of Shagang, Yonggang and Zhongtian steel mills all fell back to a certain extent yesterday, further stimulating the attitude of traders. This week, the confidence of the nation's building materials market is still weak, and operators are willing to let prices operate. Although businesses still have shipments, the transaction price is still concentrated at a low level, especially in view of the policy of leading steel mills. Market mentality also caused no small impact, which led to the continuous decline in the overall market; at the same time, the forward market has also experienced substantial volatility, but also brought negative for the development of the spot market, but taking into account the demand remains flat after the fall, traders price There is still room for control. Therefore, it is expected that the construction materials market will continue its narrow-range consolidation pattern next week. As of Thursday's close, the average price of 20mmHRB335-threaded 25 cities nationwide was 4,262 yuan/ton, down by 42 yuan/ton from the previous week; the average price of 20mmHRB400-threaded 25 cities nationwide was 4,416 yuan/ton, down by 44 yuan from the previous week. t; 6.5mmQ235 high-line average price of 24 major cities in the country is 4,360 yuan / ton, down from the previous week by 55 yuan / ton.

Hot-rolled coils: The price of hot-rolled coils in the domestic market fell slightly this week. At present, the highest price of hot-rolled coils in Kunming is 4460 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Tianjin is 4080 yuan/ton. This week, the domestic hot-rolling market tends to be in a similar trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the atmosphere of the market trading is light, and the overall price is stable and weak. From the mainstream market point of view, it is understood that the recent sunshine sent to Shanghai in the area of ​​hot rolling close to 20W tons, of which more orders for business resources, the cost of 4100-4150 yuan / ton, the business said that although the market expectations after the Spring Festival is more pessimistic, but under Exploration space is limited, and the cost of arrival near 4,100 yuan/ton is lower than expected, and its price risk is relatively small. In terms of inventory, the nation's latest hot rolled coil inventory increased for the first time in two months. The national caliber of hot rolled coils in the same caliber was 4.0408 million tons, a decrease of 0.63 million tons. For steel mills, Anshan Iron & Steel issued a price policy in February, in which the hot rolled coils remained flat, and the total order discount was RMB 20/t. It is understood that the base price of hot rolled steel in February unchanged, but last year, old customers enjoy 100 yuan / ton rebate canceled, ordering preferences from the original 150 yuan / ton adjusted to 100 yuan / ton, East China, South China repair by 150 yuan / Ton adjusted to 100 yuan / ton, in February continued to 60% of orders, 5 # blast furnace is expected to recover by the end of January, the official document has not been announced. In response to the steel plant's early introduction of February's ordering policy, many people are expecting it. Therefore, the market's mentality is stable without excessive resources and psychological pressure. As of Thursday's close, the mainstream quotation for 1500mm carbon steel coils in Shanghai market is 4230-4250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer for low-alloy resources is 4350 yuan/ton, which is a narrower decline than last week. Judging from the average price of 24 cities across the country, the average price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coils is RMB 4,348/t, which is RMB 7/t lower than that of last week; the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils is RMB 4,236/t, which is relatively low. Last week fell 8 yuan / ton.

Plate: Plate prices in the domestic market continued to fall this week. The current highest price of medium plate in Kunming is 4480 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is in Tianjin 4000 yuan/ton. In terms of market, due to the prolonged Spring Festival holiday, businesses will end this week and they will gradually leave the city. The lower trading volume is also relatively normal, and the atmosphere of market holidays is relatively strong. In terms of inventory, the latest caliber of medium-sized board stocks in the country was 1.4129 million tons, an increase of 26,500 tons from the previous quarter. The nation’s stocks increased for the first time after a consecutive 12-week shock and decline. Shanghai’s latest stock of medium-sized boards with calibers was 377,900 tons, a decrease of 0.06 from the previous quarter. Ten thousand tons. For steel mills, after Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Baotou Steel and other steel mills also chose flat prices for the medium- and heavy-plate prices in February. East China's billet-rolled steel mills are also flat for prices in mid-January, and plate prices dominate. The flat price policy of steel mills has played a certain role in supporting the market price. Considering that the next week is the last week after the holiday, the market trading volume is also relatively limited. The steel market is also going to be empty, and the willingness of the leftover merchants will be low. The weekly market price will be mainly stable. As of Thursday's close, the mainstream market price of Shanghai Maquor plate 20mm is 4330 yuan/ton, and that of low-alloy resources is 4,530 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last week. Judging from the average price of 23 cities across the country, the 8mm plate price is 4,515 yuan/ton, which is 13 yuan/ton lower than last week; the average price of 20mm common plate is 4,218 yuan/ton, which is 11 yuan less than last week. / Ton; The average price of 20mm low-alloy plates is 4396 yuan/ton, which is down 9 yuan/ton compared with last week.

Cold-rolled coils: This week, the domestic cold-rolled coil market continues to experience weaker downturns, and the market transactions are general. Take the mainstream 1.0mm*1250mm*c specification as an example. Although this week the market in Tianjin has risen slightly by RMB 20/t, it will continue to lead the cold-rolled lowest cities in the country with its original “ultra-low” price; this week, the Kunming market holds prices. Stable, still at 5480 yuan / ton for the country's highest price. From the perspective of price fluctuations, this week, Tianjin and Wuhan removed cold-rolled prices by overdrawing and rebounding by RMB 10-20. Other markets were dominated by weaker declines. Among them, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Urumqi fell by 50 yuan/ton. Qingdao and Chengdu fell by 40 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou, Jinan, Changsha and Wuhan fell by 10-20 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival has been getting closer. Due to the lack of large-scale procurement in a short period of time, the country’s cold rolling stocks are still rising this week. Before the Spring Festival last year, the social inventory was relatively high, and the market transaction price was tentatively rising. This was due to the generally optimistic view of the post-holiday market. This year, on the contrary, the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are close to each other. At the same time, social inventory and transaction prices have not been higher than last year, and the market has been in a weak downward adjustment channel, and prices are unlikely to show signs of rising. On the one hand, oversupply is the key factor that restricts the rise in cold-rolled prices. On the other hand, there are many concerns in the industry regarding the post-holiday uncertainty. Market sentiment is not stable enough and will have a greater impact on the direction of market operations. Judging from the current situation, it is difficult to effectively solve the problem of post-holiday funding. Under the pressure of tight funds, the market transaction price will be suppressed, and the post-holiday cold-rolling market remains difficult. As of Thursday's close, the national average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils was 5125 yuan/ton, which was lower than the same period last week (down 13 yuan/ton.

Profiles: Prices of domestic materials generally stabilized this week, and weakness in some regions declined. Among them, the highest price of the 5# corner in Shenyang Ming is 4,850 yuan/ton, the lowest price in Taiyuan is 4,070 yuan/ton; the highest price of the 16# trough is Kunming 4900 yuan/ton, the lowest price is Tianjin 3930 yuan/ton; 25# The highest price of Zigang is 4,920 yuan/ton in Lanzhou, and the lowest price is 4,230 yuan/ton in Tianjin. With the Spring Festival approaching, the end-users have been suspended one after another, coupled with the fact that the capital has not been completely relaxed, and the market transactions have become even more sluggish, which has weakened the price support. However, due to seasonal factors, the recent arrivals have been reduced, some small steel mills have stopped shipping, traders have little pressure on inventory, so prices can remain generally stable. This week, Tangshan billet still oscillates at a low level. The current settlement price of Q235 billet 150 is reported at RMB 3,700/t. In view of the fact that traders in the market have gradually left the market, the market environment is becoming more and more deserted and the possibility of price fluctuations is getting smaller and smaller. Due to the relatively high financing costs and the lack of confidence in the post-holiday market, downstream users and intermediate traders generally do not have the intention of inventorying the New Year. It is worth noting that the current long-term market trend is still fluctuated. Although Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent speech emphasizes boosting the confidence of the financial market, it seems that the bearish sentiment in the spot market is still relatively strong, and the spot market in the latter period has been affected or oscillated. The author expects that the price of the work slot in the short-term domestic market will remain stable. As of Thursday's close, the average price of 23 major markets in the country: 5# angle steel 4435 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from last week, 16# channel steel national average price 4396 yuan/ton, compared with last week Compared with the price of RMB 11/ton, the 25# I-beam was RMB 4,520/ton, which was RMB 10/ton lower than last week.

In summary, the overall market environment is still dominated by bad, with the approaching Spring Festival, most businesses this week have been prepared to leave the city, even if some of them are still sticking to their positions, the focus of work is also more transferred to the follow-up summary and repayment The operation of the spot is relatively loose. As the enthusiasm for terminals and downstream purchases weakened, spot transactions continued to decline. With the support of steel mills and raw material costs, there is little room for late price decline. It is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by weaker operations before the end of the year.

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